Meta paid social → Aisle offer funnel → in-store Target redemption
Data through Oct 1, 2026● Meta all four campaigns paused · relaunch last spent Sep 26● Aisle Free still signing up via Aisle Community● 50% Off 4-Pack new · Aisle only, from Sep 30Data pulled Oct 1, 2026, ~10:45 AM ET
AISLE
Aisle Performance Explorer
Every Aisle Target offer, day by day, with Meta's spend and leads alongside. Pick any date range, group the timeline by day, week or month, and switch offers on and off to compare them together or on their own. Everything below recomputes from day-level data.
Date range
Custom
–
Group timeline by
Offers
Charts show
Signups
Aisle signups by signup day
Redemptions
Verified in-store redemptions by redemption day
Revenue vs total cost
Aisle retail value against Aisle payouts + fees + Meta spend
Signups by source
Meta paid · Aisle Community (app & offers page) · Aisle blast · organic / untagged
Meta spend
Daily spend from the Meta Ads API (account time)
Cohort conversion
Share of each period's signups that have redeemed to date · periods under 25 signups omitted
Offers side by side
Selected range, one row per selected offer
By period
Selected offers combined
Signups by source
Signup-day cohorts in the selected range: how many signed up from each source and how many of them have redeemed since
No offers selected. Switch one on above.
How to read this. Aisle days are UTC (they roll over at 8 PM ET); Meta days are account time, so a day's Meta spend and Aisle signups can sit a few hours apart. The last day is partial. Redemptions are counted on the day they happen; cohort conversion follows the signups made in the range and every redemption they have made since, so a young range always reads low. Redemptions take about ten days to mature. Cost per redemption and true cost per email include Meta spend plus Aisle payouts and fees. The source split comes from Aisle's Entry Channels data and runs 7–11 signups per offer short of the signup card; Meta leads are never added to Aisle signups.
Sections 01–10 below are the Sep 25 edition's written analysis and have not been updated for Sep 26 – Oct 1. Use the explorer above for current figures.
01
Portfolio Snapshot
Four acquisition efforts combined, campaign-to-date. The original free offer (Meta Aug 30–31), BOGO (Aug 31 – Sep 9) and the Try-for-$8 offer (three legs, Sep 9–23) are paused, and their Meta figures are final. The free offer was relaunched on Sep 24 on the same Aisle campaign, through a new Meta campaign (PRES_Target-Aisle_Free_ABO_092026, delivering since 3:11 PM) and Aisle's own marketplace; it is live, and its figures are about eighteen hours old. Aisle's current day (its dates roll over at 8 PM ET) is partial and is excluded from every age-matched comparison.
Aisle's data can now be cut by signup date — the cohort view this report has requested for eleven editions — and it settles three open questions. Filtering Aisle's channel data to a signup date returns that day's signups and every redemption they have made since. (1) The $8 offer's third-leg lift came from its older cohorts, not the new one: by leg its signups have redeemed at 6.2%, 5.6% and 2.3%, and scored at Free's rate for their age all three legs sit at 23–25%. (2) BOGO's Sep 9 signups — the day the Meta pixel went quiet — have not produced a single redemption: 0 of 46 after fifteen days, a 1-in-900 outcome at BOGO's own rate. (3) The free offer's two original cohorts are not alike: Aug 30's 3,220 signups have redeemed at 35.7%, Aug 31's 1,493 at 12.4%, on the same creatives. Section 04 is rebuilt on this data.
The relaunch reactivated the original free cohort. Signups from Aug 30–31 had been redeeming at about 4 a day; since Sep 23 they have redeemed 67 more in a day and a half. Meta also reports 1,218 relaunch leads against 914 Aisle signups tagged to the relaunch campaign: people who already had the offer clicked the new ads, registered as Meta leads, were not new Aisle signups — and when they redeemed, Aisle credited their original August signup. At 4:14 PM on Sep 24, an hour after delivery began, the relaunch ads were set to exclude the EXCL_Free-pres-qzl_Leads_60d audience of prior free-offer leads. The original cohort now stands at 1,334 / 28.26% (1,267 / 26.84% before the relaunch); the pre-relaunch figure is the reference used for age-matching.
02
Executive Performance Summary
The free offer's relaunch produced more signups in eighteen hours than BOGO did in ten days, at the lowest cost per lead the account has recorded, with Aisle's marketplace supplying half of them and most of the early redemptions. Signup-dated cohort data corrects two earlier readings and confirms two others.
Relaunch
The relaunch drew 1,962 signups in its first eighteen hours, at $0.29 each across all sources. Meta: $562.87 for 1,218 leads ($0.46 CPL), the cheapest cost per lead in the account's history, CPM $19.71, and 914 Aisle signups tagged to the campaign ($0.62 each). Aisle's marketplace added 995 more at no media cost. Sep 24's 700 signups arrived in the nine hours after delivery began; Sep 25 had 1,261 by 9 AM. The four ad sets are on $500 a day in total.
New source
Aisle Community signups are redeeming far faster than Meta's.138 of 995 (13.9%) have redeemed already — 100 of Sep 24's 432 (23.1%) within about a day — against 17 of 914 (1.9%) for the relaunch's Meta signups. The original free cohort's curve reached 7.5% by the end of day one. Marketplace users arrive with the app installed and a store trip closer; the difference may narrow as Meta's cohort ages, and it is eighteen hours old. Each Aisle Community redemption costs Prés only Aisle's program cost (≈$13.61), with no media.
Reactivation
The relaunch also reached people who already had the offer. The original cohort added 67 redemptions since Sep 23, against a pre-relaunch pace of about 4 a day, and Meta counts ~300 more relaunch leads than Aisle counts relaunch signups. Those redemptions are real sales, but they are credited to the August campaign and are not new customers. The 60-day exclusion audience added on Sep 24 should shrink the effect; the gap between Meta leads and tagged Aisle signups is the number to watch.
Corrected
The $8 offer converts at a quarter of the free offer's age-matched rate, not a fifth — and the third leg was no better than the first two. Scored cohort by cohort: 24.7%, 25.2% and 22.6% for the three legs, 24.6% overall (65 redemptions against 265 expected). The Sep 19 aggregate reading of 19.5% understated it because the $8 cohorts mature later than Free's curve assumes. Composite 0.246 × 1.102 = 0.27. The conclusion stands: at $4.37 of media per signup the offer earns about $0.96 per signup at maturity.
Replicated ×8
BOGO's composite, rebuilt from cohort-level data: 0.520 × 1.888 = 0.98. Its signups convert at 52.0% of Free's age-matched rate (281 against 540 expected) — 53.2% if the 46 zero-redemption Sep 9 signups are set aside. Eight rebuilds: 1.03, 1.04, 1.06, 1.06, 1.00, 0.97, 0.97, 0.98. 281 redemptions / 13.73%; Meta cost per redemption $21.10 against a $24.83 basket; breakeven bar 14.22%, 97% cleared.
Explained
BOGO's Sep 9 “pixel gap” signups look invalid. On Sep 9 Meta recorded 374 clicks, 2 landing-page views and 5 leads while Aisle recorded 46 BOGO signups. Fifteen days on, those 46 have 0 redemptions; at BOGO's own rate about 6 were expected, and zero happens about once in 900 draws. Signups Meta's pixel did not see and that never redeem are more likely automated or duplicate than genuine — worth raising with Aisle before BOGO restarts.
Two cohorts
The original free offer's Aug 30 and Aug 31 signups redeem at 35.7% and 12.4%. The same Free-Original creative converted 33.0% of Aug 30 signups and 14.8% of Aug 31's; untagged traffic 46.9% and 25.5%. Section 04's reference curve assumed the two days matured alike; re-fitted with each day at its own level it moves BOGO's and the $8 offer's ratios by less than 0.4 points, so the conclusions stand. What made the first day three times better is not visible in the data.
Bottom line
$13,395.46 of media has produced 10,037 first-party records, 1,836 verified in-store purchases, 2,133 units and $27,514.28 of retail movement — a blended $7.30 per verified sale, down from $7.98 as the relaunch's cheap signups arrived. The free offer, relaunched, is again the programme's most efficient acquisition by a wide margin. Recommendation: keep the relaunch running, keep the exclusion audience, and track Aisle Community and Meta as separate cohorts — the relaunch's economics depend on whether Meta's cohort catches up with the marketplace's.
03
Head-to-Head: Free Giveaway vs BOGO 4-Pack vs Try for $8
All three measured Sep 25. The free offer here is its original Aug 30–31 cohort (the relaunch has its own section, 05); that cohort is twenty-six days old, BOGO's is fourteen to twenty-five days old, and the $8 offer's is one to sixteen days old — read every row with that in mind, then read section 04, which corrects for it.
Revenue per Signup The measure that ranks the offers
Free$3.72
BOGO$3.41
$8 day 16$0.72
BOGO slipped to 92% of Free's figure, from 95%, because the relaunch reactivated the free cohort (+67 redemptions). Against Free's pre-relaunch $3.53 it is at 97%.
Redemption Rate BOGO's breakeven bar is 14.22%
Free28.26%
BOGO13.73%
$8 day 164.97%
Free jumped 1.4 points on reactivation (26.84% before the relaunch); BOGO still edging up. Not an age-matched test — see section 04.
vs Category Benchmark Each offer against its own peer set
Free · 24.57% bar115%
BOGO · 18.21% bar75%
$8 · 14.38% bar35%
Free is the only offer above its bar. The Free and BOGO peer figures are carried from Sep 24; the $8 peer figure moved 14.41 → 14.38%.
Cost per Verified Redemption Meta spend ÷ redemptions
Free$0.88
BOGO below $24.83 value$21.10
$8 65 redemptions$88.04
BOGO $28.37 → $23.44 → $22.38 → $21.26 → $21.10 with spend fixed; projected ≈$20.77 at maturity. The $8 figure fell from $93.81 on four more redemptions.
Units Moved per Redemption Each consistent with its offer mechanic
Free · expect ~1.01.02
BOGO · expect ~2.01.94
$8 · expect ~1.01.14
Stable for an eighth reading on Free and BOGO. The $8 figure is 74 units on 65 baskets.
Acquisition Cost Meta spend ÷ Aisle signups
Free relaunch $0.29$0.25
BOGO final$2.90
$8 final$4.37
The relaunch reproduced the original free offer's economics — $0.29 per signup against $0.25 — with half its signups from Aisle's marketplace.
Offer Economics Side by Side
Log scale, indexed — Free (original cohort) = 100 on each measure. The $8 bars are day-16 readings
Where the Signups Came From
Aisle signups matched by a Meta lead vs beyond Meta's count, by offer
04
Age-Matched Comparison
Rebuilt on signup-dated cohort data. Each BOGO and $8 signup day's redemptions are now read directly from Aisle, rather than inferred from daily totals, and scored against the free offer's curve for that cohort's age as of the last complete day (Sep 24). The free curve comes from the original cohort's daily redemptions through Sep 23 — before the relaunch began reactivating it — re-fitted to allow for its two signup days maturing at different levels. Eighth run on BOGO, fourth on the $8 offer; the first on cohort-level actuals.
Redemption Rate by Campaign Day
Free's original cohort (through Sep 23) against BOGO's and the $8 offer's rolling blends, with each offer's age-matched expectation
Each signup day, scored at Free's rate for its age — as of Sep 24
Cohort
Signups
Age
Free rate
Expected
Actual
Ratio
BOGO · Aug 31
147
24d
26.87%
39.5
28
71%
BOGO · Sep 1
310
23d
26.78%
83.0
54
65%
BOGO · Sep 2
293
22d
26.69%
78.2
34
43%
BOGO · Sep 3
245
21d
26.66%
65.3
42
64%
BOGO · Sep 4
250
20d
26.54%
66.3
35
53%
BOGO · Sep 5
262
19d
26.38%
69.1
38
55%
BOGO · Sep 6
191
18d
26.30%
50.2
17
34%
BOGO · Sep 7
148
17d
26.04%
38.5
16
42%
BOGO · Sep 8
145
16d
25.81%
37.4
17
45%
BOGO · Sep 9 pixel gap
46
15d
25.67%
11.8
0
0%
BOGO · Sep 10–11
2
13–14d
25.2–25.5%
0.5
0
—
BOGO
2,039
—
26.48%
540
281
52.0%
$8 · leg 1, Sep 9–14
596
10–15d
23.4–25.7%
149.8
37
24.7%
$8 · leg 2, Sep 15–20
359
4–9d
16.4–22.8%
79.4
20
25.2%
$8 · leg 3, Sep 21–24
347
0–3d
2.6–13.9%
35.5
8
22.6%
$8
1,302
—
20.33%
265
65
24.6%
Signups are those in Aisle's Entry Channels data (7 fewer than the card for each of BOGO and the $8 offer). Actuals include any redemptions on the partial Sep 25 (none for BOGO, 2 for the $8 offer). The free curve: ages 0–24 read 2.63, 7.45, 10.71, 13.93, 16.41 … 26.69, 26.78, 26.87%. Assuming both free signup days matured alike, as earlier editions did, gives 3.32, 8.39, 11.13, 14.57, 16.76 … 26.88% and ratios of 52.0% and 24.3% — the same conclusions.
BOGO, recomputed on cohort-level actuals: 0.520 × 1.888 = 0.98. BOGO signups convert at 52.0% of the free offer's age-matched rate, and each redemption is worth 1.89× as much ($24.83 against $13.15). Multiplied, the two offers land within 2% of each other on revenue per signup at matched maturity — $3.53 for Free against $3.47 for BOGO. Eight rebuilds: 1.03, 1.04, 1.06, 1.06, 1.00, 0.97, 0.97, 0.98. The cohort view adds texture the aggregate hid: BOGO's first days (Aug 31 – Sep 5) run at 43–71% of Free's rate and its last full days (Sep 6–8) at 34–45%, as spend rose and cost per lead climbed. Excluding Sep 9's 46 zero-redemption signups lifts the ratio to 53.2%. The offer mechanic is a wash. The decision turned on acquisition cost — $0.25 against $2.90.
The $8 offer, scored cohort by cohort: 24.6% of Free's rate, and the same on every leg — 0.246 × 1.102 = 0.27. The first leg's 596 signups have 37 redemptions against 150 expected (24.7%), the second's 359 have 20 against 79 (25.2%), the third's 347 have 8 against 36 (22.6%). Last week's rise from 19.5% to 24.0% in the aggregate reading was the first two legs maturing later than Free's curve predicts, not the third leg being better — its cohorts are the weakest so far. Its redemptions are worth 1.10× Free's ($14.49 against $13.15). At 24.6% the offer matures near 6.6% and earns about $0.96 of retail per signup, against $4.37 of media.
Measure
Free Giveaway
BOGO 4-Pack
Gap
Try for $8 · day 16
Redemption rate, age-matched
100% (reference)
52.0%
Free 1.92× better
24.6%
Value per redemption
$13.15
$24.83
BOGO 1.89× better
$14.49 on 65
Revenue per signup, matched maturity
$3.53
$3.47
Free +2%
≈$0.96 projected
Aisle program cost per redemption
$13.61
$13.57
even
$5.70
Meta cost per redemption
$0.88
$21.10
Free 24× cheaper
$88.04 on 65
True cost per email media + Aisle payouts & fees ÷ signups
$4.10
$4.76
Free 1.2× cheaper
$4.66
Cost per Aisle signup
$0.25
$2.90
Free 11.6× cheaper
$4.37 · $5.12 third leg
Retail movement per media dollar
$14.87
$1.18
Free 12.6× better
$0.16 · ≈$0.22 projected
Blended ROI incl. Aisle costs
0.91
0.72
Free 1.3× better
0.15
The standing caveats. Free's column is its original cohort: revenue, payouts and fees are the campaign's per-redemption averages applied to that cohort's 1,334 redemptions, because Aisle reports them for the campaign as a whole; the matched-maturity row uses its pre-relaunch 26.84%. Free's $0.25 signup depends on 1.35× amplification that neither paid offer reproduced (BOGO 0.99×, the $8 offer 0.98×). Free's Aisle program costs are 4.8× BOGO's, which is why the blended ROI gap (0.91 vs 0.72) is far narrower than the media-only gap of 12.6×. The $8 offer's Aisle cost per redemption is less than half the other two, but the rate it needs to match BOGO on revenue per signup is 23.5%, and it is tracking toward 6.6%.
05
Free Relaunch & Acquisition Sources — Meta vs Aisle Community
The free offer relaunched on Sep 24 on the same Aisle campaign (1 Free – Target). Its signups are identified by signup date (Sep 24 onward) and split by source from Aisle's Entry Channels data. Aisle Community is signups from Aisle's own marketplace — its iOS and Android apps and its offers page — with no media cost to Prés; Aisle is paid only when one redeems. The relaunch is about eighteen hours old (Meta read at 8:54 AM, Aisle at 9:02 AM ET on Sep 25), and every rate below is a first-day reading.
Aisle Relaunch Signups
1,962
995 Aisle Community · 914 Meta · 53 other
Meta Relaunch Spend
$562.87
1,218 leads · $0.46 CPL · $0.62 per tagged signup
Aisle Community Share
50.7%
of relaunch signups · 87% of its redemptions
Aisle Relaunch Redemptions
158
138 Aisle Community · 17 Meta · 3 other
Derived Cost / Relaunch Signup
$0.29
Meta spend ÷ all relaunch signups · original $0.25
Relaunch by day
Spend
Impr.
CPM
LP Views
Meta Leads
CPL
Aisle Signups
Aisle Community
Meta-tagged
Other
Redeemed so far
Wed, Sep 24 delivery from 3:11 PM
$380.31
18,916
$20.11
979
790
$0.48
700
432
256
12
111 · 15.9%
Thu, Sep 25 partial · to ~9 AM
$182.56
9,637
$18.94
563
428
$0.43
1,261
563
658
40
47 · 3.7%
Relaunch to date
$562.87
28,553
$19.71
1,542
1,218
$0.46
1,961
995
914
52
158 · 8.1%
Signups by Source
Each offer's signup base split by source — the relaunch is the first with an Aisle Community share
Relaunch Signups by Channel
Aisle Community channels and Meta ad sets, Sep 24–25 — hover for redemptions so far
Source · all offers
Channel
Free · original
Free · relaunch
BOGO
Try for $8
Signups
Share
Redemptions
Redem. rate
Meta paid
Correctly tagged — original campaigns
3,778
—
2,005
1,209
6,992
69.7%
1,261
18.03%
Meta paid
Relaunch — PRES_Target-Aisle_Free_ABO_092026
—
914
—
—
914
9.1%
17
1.86% · day 0–1
Meta paid
Broken {{macro}} or stale UTMs
189
27
16
46
278
2.8%
87
31.29%
Aisle Community
iOS app
—
599
—
—
599
6.0%
97
16.19% · day 0–1
Aisle Community
Offers page
—
308
—
—
308
3.1%
27
8.77% · day 0–1
Aisle Community
Android app
—
88
—
—
88
0.9%
14
15.91% · day 0–1
Organic / untagged
Landing page, no UTM (direct & shared links)
732
25
18
47
822
8.2%
330
40.15%
Organic / untagged
Instagram link-in-bio
16
—
—
—
16
0.2%
4
25.00%
20 signups are not represented in Aisle's Entry Channels tables (Free 6, BOGO 7, $8 7); the free offer's cohort read ran one redemption ahead of its card
All sources
4,720
1,962
2,046
1,309
10,037
100%
1,836
18.29%
Relaunch Meta ad set
Daily budget
Spend
CPM
Meta Leads
CPL
Aisle Signups
Signups / lead
Cost / Signup
Redeemed
AS1A_Metro-Top10-DMAs
$100
$130.33
$21.16
384
$0.34
254
0.66
$0.51
8 · 3.1%
AS1B_Metro-31-DMAs
$150
$165.24
$19.41
393
$0.42
280
0.71
$0.59
3 · 1.1%
AS2A_Regional-50-DMAs
$125
$128.82
$19.10
249
$0.52
196
0.79
$0.66
5 · 2.6%
AS2B_Regional-96-DMAs
$125
$138.48
$19.40
213
$0.65
184
0.86
$0.75
1 · 0.5%
Relaunch campaign
$500
$562.87
$19.71
1,218
$0.46
914
0.75
$0.62
17 · 1.9%
Relaunch Meta creative
Spend
% spend
Meta Leads
CPL
Aisle Signups
Cost / Signup
Redeemed
Free-Original_V2
$293.18
52.1%
544
$0.54
358
$0.82
12 · 3.4%
4PackB_V1
$187.94
33.4%
442
$0.43
376
$0.50
4 · 1.1%
4PackA_V1
$81.75
14.5%
232
$0.35
180
$0.45
1 · 0.6%
Total
$562.87
100%
1,218
$0.46
914
$0.62
17 · 1.9%
Half the relaunch's signups and nearly nine in ten of its early redemptions came from Aisle's marketplace. Aisle Community brought 995 signups at no media cost — 599 from the iOS app, 308 from the offers page, 88 from Android — and 138 have already redeemed (13.9%); Sep 24's 432 marketplace signups are at 23.1% after about a day, three times the original free cohort's 7.5% at the same age. Meta's relaunch signups are at 1.9% (Sep 24's: 3.9%). Marketplace users are already Aisle app users, so a quick store trip is plausible; whether Meta's cohort converges is the question for the next edition. On Meta's side the cost is excellent — $0.46 per lead, $0.62 per tagged Aisle signup — but only 0.75 Aisle signups arrive per Meta lead, against 1.35 for the original free campaign, because returning users count as Meta leads without becoming new Aisle signups (section 01).
How sources are classified.Meta paid is any Entry Channels row with source meta or facebook: correctly tagged rows from the three original campaigns, the relaunch campaign, and rows with unresolved {{campaign.name}} / {{adset.name}} macros or (3 signups) an old campaign's UTMs on relaunch days. Aisle Community is rows with no UTM parameters whose Aisle acquisition tag is MOBILE_APP_SIGNUP_IOS, MOBILE_APP_SIGNUP_ANDROID or an offers-page signup; Aisle's dashboard labels these source Aisle Community. Organic / untagged is landing-page signups with no UTM parameters and no marketplace tag, plus Instagram. Meta leads are never added to Aisle signups. Aisle's Sep 25 began at 8 PM ET on Sep 24, so its Sep 25 column includes the evening of Meta's Sep 24.
06
Redemptions by Geography
Where verified Target redemptions are happening, from Aisle's redemptions-by-state data for all three offers (Sep 25, about 9 AM ET; the free offer's figures include the relaunch's first redemptions). Aisle assigns a state to 1,572 of 1,836 redemptions (85.6%) — 87.9% on Free, 76.5% on BOGO, 73.8% on the $8 offer; the rest carry no location and are left out rather than allocated. The population comparison uses 2020 Census resident population.
Located Redemptions
1,572
85.6% of 1,836
Footprint
46
45 states + DC
Top State
16.0%
California · 252
Top 5 Share
47.8%
vs 36.1% of US population
Top 10 Share
64.5%
vs 52.3% of US population
States to 50% / 80%
6 / 18
of redemptions
Concentration (HHI)
638
≈16 equal-sized states
Top 15 States — Redemptions and Cumulative Share
Stacked by offer; hover a state for its running share of all located redemptions
Redemptions vs Population, by Census Region
Share of located redemptions against share of US population
State
Free
BOGO
Try for $8
Total
Share
Cumulative
US pop. share
Index
California
219
25
8
252
16.0%
16.0%
11.9%
1.34×
Texas
147
11
7
165
10.5%
26.5%
8.8%
1.19×
Florida
124
23
6
153
9.7%
36.3%
6.5%
1.50×
New York
73
19
2
94
6.0%
42.2%
6.1%
0.98×
New Jersey
74
11
2
87
5.5%
47.8%
2.8%
1.97×
Illinois
48
14
0
62
3.9%
51.7%
3.9%
1.02×
Pennsylvania
48
10
1
59
3.8%
55.5%
3.9%
0.96×
Arizona
45
8
1
54
3.4%
58.9%
2.2%
1.59×
Michigan
42
4
1
47
3.0%
61.9%
3.0%
0.98×
Georgia
34
7
0
41
2.6%
64.5%
3.2%
0.81×
North Carolina
34
5
2
41
2.6%
67.1%
3.1%
0.83×
Virginia
32
5
2
39
2.5%
69.6%
2.6%
0.95×
Massachusetts
27
7
2
36
2.3%
71.9%
2.1%
1.08×
Ohio
31
2
0
33
2.1%
74.0%
3.6%
0.59×
Maryland
22
4
0
26
1.7%
75.6%
1.9%
0.89×
Remaining 30 states + DC
309
60
14
383
24.4%
100.0%
34.4%
0.71×
Located redemptions
1,309
215
48
1,572
100%
—
100%
—
Concentration by offer
Located
Coverage
States
Top state
Top 5
Top 10
States to 50%
HHI
Free Giveaway
1,309
87.9%
45
CA 16.7%
48.7%
65.2%
6
666
BOGO 4-Pack
215
76.5%
39
CA 11.6%
42.8%
62.8%
7
538
Try for $8
48
73.8%
24
CA 16.7%
52.1%
70.8%
5
816 · small base
All offers
1,572
85.6%
46
CA 16.0%
47.8%
64.5%
6
638
Redemptions follow population with a coastal and Sun Belt tilt, and they are moderately concentrated — not dependent on one market. California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey account for 47.8% of located redemptions against 36.1% of the US population; six states make up half. The strongest over-indexers are New Jersey (1.97×), Arizona (1.59×), Florida (1.50×) and California (1.34×); the clearest under-indexer among large states is Ohio (0.59×), and the 30 states and DC outside the top 15 hold 34.4% of the population but 24.4% of redemptions (0.71×). By region the Northeast (1.15×) and West (1.12×) over-index and the Midwest (0.85×) under-indexes. California, Florida and New York are in every offer's top five. The relaunch day added 196 located free-offer redemptions — relaunch signups and reactivated August signups together — and left the pattern unchanged (California 16.4% → 16.7% of the free offer's).
What drives the pattern, and how to read it. Geography here is the product of three things the report cannot separate: where people live, where Target has stores, and where Meta delivered — the original campaigns split budget between a Metro ad set (41 DMAs) and a Regional one (146 DMAs), and the relaunch uses four ad sets of 10, 31, 50 and 96 DMAs. An index above 1 is therefore not by itself evidence of stronger demand. Aisle Community signups, which Meta did not target, are the first test of that: Aisle's state data is by campaign, not by source, so their geography will only become visible if the relaunch moves the free offer's mix. HHI is the sum of squared state shares × 10,000 (below 1,000 is low concentration).
All 46 locations
State
Region
Free
BOGO
Try for $8
Total
Share
Cumulative
1. California
West
219
25
8
252
16.0%
16.0%
2. Texas
South
147
11
7
165
10.5%
26.5%
3. Florida
South
124
23
6
153
9.7%
36.3%
4. New York
Northeast
73
19
2
94
6.0%
42.2%
5. New Jersey
Northeast
74
11
2
87
5.5%
47.8%
6. Illinois
Midwest
48
14
0
62
3.9%
51.7%
7. Pennsylvania
Northeast
48
10
1
59
3.8%
55.5%
8. Arizona
West
45
8
1
54
3.4%
58.9%
9. Michigan
Midwest
42
4
1
47
3.0%
61.9%
10. Georgia
South
34
7
0
41
2.6%
64.5%
11. North Carolina
South
34
5
2
41
2.6%
67.1%
12. Virginia
South
32
5
2
39
2.5%
69.6%
13. Massachusetts
Northeast
27
7
2
36
2.3%
71.9%
14. Ohio
Midwest
31
2
0
33
2.1%
74.0%
15. Maryland
South
22
4
0
26
1.7%
75.6%
16. Minnesota
Midwest
20
4
1
25
1.6%
77.2%
17. Washington
West
21
3
1
25
1.6%
78.8%
18. Connecticut
Northeast
19
3
1
23
1.5%
80.3%
19. Tennessee
South
18
5
0
23
1.5%
81.7%
20. Missouri
Midwest
19
3
0
22
1.4%
83.1%
21. Oklahoma
South
16
5
1
22
1.4%
84.5%
22. Iowa
Midwest
16
4
1
21
1.3%
85.9%
23. Indiana
Midwest
17
3
1
21
1.3%
87.2%
24. Wisconsin
Midwest
16
3
2
21
1.3%
88.5%
25. Colorado
West
18
2
0
20
1.3%
89.8%
26. Nevada
West
16
3
1
20
1.3%
91.1%
27. Oregon
West
18
2
0
20
1.3%
92.4%
28. Kansas
Midwest
10
4
1
15
1.0%
93.3%
29. Kentucky
South
10
1
1
12
0.8%
94.1%
30. Nebraska
Midwest
9
2
0
11
0.7%
94.8%
31. Utah
West
9
2
0
11
0.7%
95.5%
32. New Hampshire
Northeast
7
1
0
8
0.5%
96.0%
33. South Carolina
South
7
1
0
8
0.5%
96.5%
34. Alabama
South
4
2
1
7
0.4%
96.9%
35. District of Columbia
South
5
2
0
7
0.4%
97.4%
36. New Mexico
West
7
0
0
7
0.4%
97.8%
37. Louisiana
South
4
1
1
6
0.4%
98.2%
38. Arkansas
South
4
1
0
5
0.3%
98.5%
39. Idaho
West
2
2
1
5
0.3%
98.9%
40. Rhode Island
Northeast
5
0
0
5
0.3%
99.2%
41. Delaware
South
3
0
0
3
0.2%
99.4%
42. Mississippi
South
3
0
0
3
0.2%
99.6%
43. Hawaii
West
2
0
0
2
0.1%
99.7%
44. Vermont
Northeast
2
0
0
2
0.1%
99.8%
45. West Virginia
South
2
0
0
2
0.1%
99.9%
46. Maine
Northeast
0
1
0
1
0.1%
100.0%
Try for $8 · “Try a 4-Pack for $8 – Target” · Meta delivery Sep 9 – 4:41 PM Sep 12, 11:06 AM Sep 15 – ~2 AM Sep 17 and 10:54 AM Sep 21 – 1:19 PM Sep 23 · paused since Sep 23 · signups 1,313 · redemptions: 3 → 17 → 26 → 61 → 65 → 94
07
Scorecard — Try for $8
Meta figures are final apart from late-attributed leads (30 have arrived since the pause, with no spend). Aisle figures are current to Oct 1, about 10:45 AM ET; every Aisle rate on this card is still a floor, on cohorts eight to twenty-two days old. Redemptions by leg are each leg's own signups, from Aisle's signup-dated Entry Channels data.
Meta Spend
$5,722.63
$2,117.29 · $1,812.05 · $1,793.29 by leg
Meta Impressions
207.2K
207,172 · reach 95,685 · freq 2.17
Meta CTR
5.00%
2.75% on outbound clicks · video inflates all-clicks
Meta CPC
$0.55
CPM $27.62 · $28–36 on the third leg
Meta Leads
1,344
5,397 LP views · 24.9% convert · 30 late
Meta CPL
$4.26
$3.96 · $4.69 · $4.24 by leg
Aisle Signups
1,313
600 · 359 · 354 by leg
Derived Eff. Cost / Signup
$4.36
$3.53 · $5.05 · $5.07 by leg
Aisle Redemptions
94
52 · 24 · 18 by leg · was 65 on Sep 25
Aisle Redemption Rate
7.16%
day 8–22 · benchmark 14.38%
Aisle Redemption Value
$1,309.44
$13.93 avg · 103 units
Aisle Payout / Redemption
$5.00
vs $12.87 BOGO · $12.88 Free
Aisle Program Cost / Redem.
$5.70
$470.00 payouts + $65.80 fees
Derived Amplification
0.98×
1,313 on 1,344 leads · 1.12× · 0.93× · 0.84× by leg
Derived Meta Cost / Redemption
$60.88
$5,722.63 ÷ 94 · $66.58 incl. Aisle costs
Derived True Cost / Email
$4.77
$5,722.63 media + $535.80 Aisle ÷ 1,313 signups
08
Each Leg as a Cohort — and Day by Day
Aisle's signup-dated data now shows what each leg's own signups have done. Signups here are those in Aisle's Entry Channels data (7 fewer than the card); expected redemptions are Free's curve at each signup day's age as of Sep 24, summed over the leg.
Leg
Meta spend
Meta leads
Aisle signups
Redemptions
Rate
Age
Expected at Free's rate
Age-matched
Meta cost / redemption
Leg 1 · Sep 9–14
$2,117.29
535
596
37
6.21%
10–15d
149.8
24.7%
$57.22
Leg 2 · Sep 15–20
$1,812.05
386
359
20
5.57%
4–9d
79.4
25.2%
$90.60
Leg 3 · Sep 21–24
$1,793.29
408
347
8
2.31%
0–3d
35.5
22.6%
$224.16 · young
Campaign
$5,722.63
1,329
1,302
65
4.99%
—
264.7
24.6%
$88.04
The three legs perform alike once age is accounted for — about a quarter of the free offer's rate. The first leg's cohorts, now ten to fifteen days old, have redeemed at 6.2%; the second's at 5.6% at four to nine days; the third's at 2.3% at zero to three. Scored against Free's curve, 24.7%, 25.2% and 22.6%. Last week's aggregate reading rose from 19.5% to 24.0% while the third leg was running; the cohort view shows that rise came from the first two legs catching up — the $8 cohorts redeem later than the free offer's did, which is what a paid trial should be expected to do, and a reason to judge future paid offers at three weeks rather than one. The third leg's cohorts are the weakest so far, not the strongest.
Date
Spend
Impr.
Clicks
CTR
Outbound CTR
CPC
CPM
LP Views
Meta Leads
LPV → Lead
Meta CPL
Aisle Signups
Cost / Signup
Redem. that day
Wed, Sep 9 launch · ~13 h
$483.33
22,199
575
2.59%
1.74%
$0.84
$21.77
343
104
30.3%
$4.65
87
$5.56
2
Thu, Sep 10
$671.48
24,654
1,708
6.93%
3.16%
$0.39
$27.24
712
172
24.2%
$3.90
175
$3.84
1
Fri, Sep 11 best CPL
$658.18
24,055
1,606
6.68%
3.62%
$0.41
$27.36
809
188
23.2%
$3.50
166
$3.96
4
Sat, Sep 12 stopped 4:41 PM · payment
$304.30
11,336
774
6.83%
3.59%
$0.39
$26.84
380
71
18.7%
$4.29
130
$2.34
3
Sun, Sep 13 – Mon, Sep 14 no delivery
$0.00
0
0
—
—
—
—
0
0
—
—
42
—
6
Tue, Sep 15 restart 11:06 AM
$689.57
28,532
864
3.03%
1.80%
$0.80
$24.17
478
159
33.3%
$4.34
74
$9.32 · 9 h of Aisle day
5
Wed, Sep 16
$1,010.36
36,343
1,466
4.03%
2.28%
$0.69
$27.80
771
208
27.0%
$4.86
222
$4.55
3
Thu, Sep 17 stopped ~2 AM · payment
$112.12
3,498
162
4.63%
2.49%
$0.69
$32.05
83
16
19.3%
$7.01
59
—
6
Fri, Sep 18 – Sun, Sep 20 no delivery
$0.00
0
0
—
—
—
—
0
3 late
—
—
4
—
9
Mon, Sep 21 restart 10:54 AM · settled
$602.75
21,248
1,023
4.81%
2.75%
$0.59
$28.37
561
145
25.8%
$4.16
56
$10.76 · 9 h of Aisle day
8
Tue, Sep 22
$888.47
26,885
1,620
6.03%
3.49%
$0.55
$33.05
949
172
18.1%
$5.17
187
$4.75
5
Wed, Sep 23 paused 1:19 PM
$302.07
8,422
568
6.74%
3.65%
$0.53
$35.87
311
76
24.4%
$3.97
106
$2.85 · incl. Sep 22 evening
8
Thu, Sep 24 – Fri, Sep 25 paused · Sep 25 partial
$0.00
0
0
—
—
—
—
0
15 late
—
—
1
—
5
Campaign to date
$5,722.63
207,172
10,366
5.00%
2.75%
$0.55
$27.62
5,397
1,329
24.6%
$4.31
1,309
$4.37
65
The third leg was the first leg again, at a higher price. With budget back on the video, landing-page-view-to-lead conversion fell back to 25.8%, 18.1% and 24.4%, and CPM ran $28.37, $33.05 and $35.87 against $21.77–27.36 on the first leg — so its cost per Aisle signup, $5.12, was the highest of the three. Meta has since attributed 15 more leads to Sep 24–25, with no delivery, taking the third leg to 408 leads ($4.40 CPL) and its amplification to 0.86×. Per-day cost per signup around each restart ($9.32, $10.76) and stop ($2.85) is an artefact of Aisle's 8 PM ET day boundary and is not a reading.
Spend, CPL and Cost per Signup by Day
Nine delivery days across three legs — Sep 9 ran 13 hours; Sep 12, 15, 21 and 23 were part days; Sep 17's two hours are omitted
Landing Page → Lead Conversion
Fell under the video, recovered when budget moved to the statics, fell again when it moved back
09
Creative & Ad Set Performance — Try for $8
Meta spend joined to Aisle signups and redemptions by UTM term, combining each creative's Metro and Regional variants and its meta / paid-social and facebook / paid rows; rows whose ad name resolved but whose ad-set macro did not are assigned to their named creative. Ad-level Meta figures are from the Sep 24 pull ($5,722.61 and 1,314 leads; 15 late leads have since been attributed at campaign level). Sixty-five redemptions support a directional redemption column at best.
Creative
Spend
% spend
Third-leg spend
Meta leads
Meta CPL
CTR
Outbound CTR
LPV → Lead
Aisle signups
Cost / signup
Redem.
Redem. rate
Video_Nathalie
$3,070.05
53.6%
$1,462.00
702
$4.37
6.59%
3.58%
20.8%
654
$4.69
31
4.74%
Original_V2
$1,244.53
21.7%
$289.66
289
$4.31
3.39%
1.85%
31.9%
269
$4.63
12
4.46%
Protein-Original_V2
$1,202.17
21.0%
$35.26
262
$4.59
3.77%
2.20%
27.1%
234
$5.14
14
5.98%
4PackB_V1
$205.86
3.6%
$6.35
61
$3.37
3.47%
1.82%
39.1%
62
$3.32
2
3.23%
Macro-broken, no creative
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
36
—
4
—
Untagged — no UTM
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
47
—
2
—
7 signups are not represented in Aisle's Entry Channels table
Total
$5,722.61
100%
$1,793.27
1,314
$4.36
5.00%
2.75%
24.3%
1,309
$4.37
65
4.97%
Each restart re-ran the creative allocation from scratch, and Meta reached a different answer each time — 70% on the video in the first leg, 54% on Protein-Original in the second, 82% on the video in the third. On redemptions Protein-Original now leads (5.98% on 234), the video is second (4.74% on 654); two weeks ago Protein-Original was called the worst creative on this offer. On 65 redemptions none of these intervals separate from the campaign average. Ad sets: Metro $4,154.28 for 963 leads ($4.31), 886 signups ($4.69) and 43 redemptions (4.85%); Regional $1,568.33 for 351 leads ($4.47), 323 signups ($4.86) and 15 redemptions (4.64%).
10
What the $8 Offer Has to Do
Signups
1,309
1,302 in cohort data
Redemptions
65
74 units moved
Redemption Rate
4.97%
day 1–16 · bar 23.5%
Age-matched vs Free
24.6%
legs 24.7 / 25.2 / 22.6%
Redemption Value
$941.83
$113.30 incremental
Avg. Redemption
$14.49
on 65 baskets
Program Cost / Redem.
$5.70
vs $13.57 BOGO
Cost / Signup
$4.37
$5.12 third leg
Meta Cost / Redem.
$88.04
$5,722.63 ÷ 65
True Cost / Email
$4.66
media + Aisle costs ÷ signups
Aisle ROI
2.54
excl. media · 0.15 blended
The bars it has to clear
23.5% redemption rate — to match BOGO on revenue per signup
BOGO earns $3.41 of retail per signup. At $14.49 per redemption the $8 offer needs 23.5%; to match Free's pre-relaunch $3.53 it needs 24.4%. Its Aisle peer benchmark is 14.38%. Age-matched, it is on course for about 6.6%.
35.5% — to match BOGO on retail per media dollar at $4.37 per signup
BOGO returns $1.18 of retail per media dollar. At $4.37 per signup the $8 offer would need $5.14 of revenue per signup, a 35.5% redemption rate — above anything the free offer has reached.
Landing-page conversion above 30%
27–33% when budget sat on the statics (second leg), 18–26% when it sat on the video (first and third legs). BOGO held 40–50%. The page is fixable by creative choice; the redemption rate has not been.
First-basket net, per signup
BOGO's first basket nets −$1.35 per signup (revenue $3.41, Aisle cost $1.86, media $2.90); the free offer's original cohort, before the relaunch, −$0.37 (revenue $3.53, Aisle cost $3.65, media $0.25). At its projected 6.6% the $8 offer nets about −$3.79 (revenue $0.96, Aisle cost $0.38, media $4.37).
What we recommend
Done The campaign is paused and stays paused
Paused Sep 23 at 1:19 PM; three legs produced 1,309 signups and 65 redemptions for $5,722.63. The account's budget is now on the free relaunch, which is acquiring signups at $0.29.
Do first Close the $8 test: a quarter of the free offer's rate, on every leg
Cohort-level scoring puts all three legs at 23–25% of Free's age-matched curve; the composite is 0.27 against BOGO's 0.98. Last week's open question — whether the third leg's lift was real — is answered: it was the older cohorts maturing late, and the third leg is the weakest of the three.
Next Judge any future paid offer at three weeks, by cohort
The $8 cohorts redeemed later than the free offer's: the reading moved from 19.5% to 24.6% while its oldest cohort aged from ten to fifteen days. With signup-dated data now available from Aisle, per-cohort scoring should be the standard test.
Next Fix the UTM macros
Unresolved {{campaign.name}} / {{adset.name}} rows: 46 signups on the $8 campaign, 16 on BOGO, 189 on the original free campaign and 24 on the relaunch. Same fault since Aug 31, and now carried into the new campaign.
Do not Read the 4.97% headline rate against anything
It is a blend of cohorts one to sixteen days old. The age-matched 24.6% is the comparable figure.
Free Relaunch · “1 Free – Target”, signups from Sep 24 · Meta PRES_Target-Aisle_Free_ABO_092026 delivered Sep 24 – Sep 26 · paused, but still signing up through Aisle Community · signups 5,742 · redemptions 2,106
07
Scorecard — Free Relaunch
Signups on the free offer's Aisle campaign from Sep 24 onward, whatever their source, and the redemptions those signups have made (Aisle's signup-dated Entry Channels data). Reactivated August signups are in the original cohort's tab, not here. Meta figures final apart from late-attributed leads. Aisle figures current to Oct 1, about 10:45 AM ET; cohorts are zero to seven days old, so every rate is a floor. Revenue and Aisle costs are the campaign's per-redemption averages applied to this cohort (marked ≈). The Sep 29 Aisle blast is a one-day Aisle send, separate from Aisle Community.
Meta Spend
$1,058.65
Sep 24–26 · no spend since · final
Meta Impressions
60.9K
60,886 · CPM $17.39
Meta CTR
7.11%
5.46% on outbound clicks · CPC $0.24
Meta Leads
2,477
2,943 LP views · 84.2% convert · 98 late
Meta CPL
$0.43
original campaign $0.34
Aisle Signups
5,742
Sep 24 – Oct 1 · all sources
Aisle Signups by Source
3,049
Aisle Community · 1,767 Meta · 605 Aisle blast · 315 organic
Derived Eff. Cost / Signup
$0.18
Meta spend ÷ all signups · $0.60 per Meta signup
Aisle Redemptions
2,106
its own signups, to date · 1,370 Aisle Community · 451 Meta
Aisle Redemption Rate
36.68%
day 0–7 · Community 44.9% · Meta 25.5% · blast 27.6%
Aisle Redemption Value
≈$27,472
$13.04 avg · ≈2,128 units
Derived Revenue / Signup
$4.78
original cohort $4.66 · BOGO $3.46
Derived Meta Cost / Redemption
$0.50
$1,058.65 ÷ 2,106 · $2.35 per Meta-sourced redemption
Derived True Cost / Email
$5.16
$1,058.65 media + ≈$28,591 Aisle ÷ 5,742 signups
Derived Amplification
2.32×
5,742 on 2,477 leads · 0.71× Meta-tagged only
Aisle Program Cost / Redem.
≈$13.58
campaign payouts + fees ÷ redemptions
BOGO 4-Pack · “BOGO 4-Pack – Target” · Meta delivery Aug 31 – Sep 9, 2026 · paused Sep 9 at 1:02 PM · signups fixed at 2,046 · redemptions still accumulating: 3 → 33 → 85 → 138 → 181 → 204 → 218 → 253 → 265 → 279 → 281 → 286 · Meta figures final
07
Scorecard — BOGO 4-Pack
Meta figures final. Aisle figures current to Oct 1, about 10:45 AM ET. Every Aisle rate on this card can only rise and every cost per redemption can only fall — though at about one redemption a day, BOGO's cohort is close to fully matured.
Nine complete delivery days and a tenth that ended at 1:02 PM with the pixel already silent. Cost per lead held between $3.67 and $3.76 for the last three full days across a ±16% swing in daily budget. Unchanged since the Sep 10 edition.
Date
Spend
Impr.
Clicks
CTR
CPC
CPM
LP Views
Meta Leads
LPV → Lead
Meta CPL
Aisle Signups
Mon, Aug 31 launch
$442.87
22,538
714
3.17%
$0.62
$19.65
551
250
45.4%
$1.77
147
Tue, Sep 1 best
$395.97
20,910
681
3.26%
$0.58
$18.94
507
253
49.9%
$1.57
311
Wed, Sep 2
$576.19
28,981
823
2.84%
$0.70
$19.88
580
289
49.8%
$1.99
297
Thu, Sep 3
$651.68
34,339
791
2.30%
$0.82
$18.98
499
250
50.1%
$2.61
245
Fri, Sep 4
$707.38
34,532
790
2.29%
$0.90
$20.48
541
243
44.9%
$2.91
250
Sat, Sep 5 peak spend
$888.92
41,833
915
2.19%
$0.97
$21.25
616
251
40.7%
$3.54
263
Sun, Sep 6
$679.62
33,566
687
2.05%
$0.99
$20.25
444
185
41.7%
$3.67
192
Mon, Sep 7 trough spend
$574.55
26,109
552
2.11%
$1.04
$22.01
387
153
39.5%
$3.76
148
Tue, Sep 8 last full day
$665.91
31,790
621
1.95%
$1.07
$20.95
433
181
41.8%
$3.68
145
Wed, Sep 9 paused 1:02 PM · pixel gap
$347.35
14,738
374
2.54%
$0.93
$23.57
2
5
—
—
46
Campaign to date
$5,930.44
289,336
6,948
2.40%
$0.85
$20.50
4,560
2,061
45.2%
$2.88
2,046
The campaign closed on the plateau it reached around Sep 5, and budget was never the lever. Spend was cut 35% from the Sep 5 peak and CPL rose; it was raised 16% on Sep 8 and CPL fell slightly; across three days and a ±16% budget swing cost per lead stayed inside a nine-cent band ($3.67–3.76). The last morning was a measurement gap — and its signups now look invalid: $347.35 of spend, 374 clicks, 2 landing-page views and 5 leads against 46 Aisle signups, and those 46 have produced 0 redemptions in fifteen days (about 6 expected at BOGO's rate; zero is a 1-in-900 outcome). Sep 9 is excluded from every Meta funnel figure and chart below; its Aisle signups are included.
Spend vs CPL by Day
Nine complete days — spend down 35%, then up 16%, CPL flat through both
Landing Page → Lead Conversion
Stepped down Sep 3–5, flat for four days, then the pixel stopped
Redemption Rate vs the Age-Matched Expectation
Rolling blend through Sep 24 — 52% of the way, on a fixed base since Sep 11
09
Creative Performance — BOGO
Meta spend joined to Aisle redemptions by UTM term, combining each creative's Metro and Regional variants and its meta / paid-social and facebook / paid rows. Ad-level spend reconciles exactly to the campaign figure of $5,930.44. The last column projects each creative's cost per redemption if the cohort matures to the ≈286 redemptions implied by section 04.
Creative
Spend
% spend
Signups
Redem.
Redem. rate
95% interval
Cost / redem.
On Sep 24
Projected at maturity
Original_V2
$4,554.13
76.8%
1,614
213
13.20%
11.6 – 14.9%
$21.38
$21.58
≈$21.04
Reveal-Video_V4
$688.54
11.6%
199
26
13.07%
9.1 – 18.5%
$26.48
$26.48
≈$26.06
Protein-Original_V2
$324.96
5.5%
101
18
17.82%
11.6 – 26.4%
$18.05
$18.05
≈$17.77
4PackB_V1
$195.51
3.3%
56
7
12.50%
6.2 – 23.6%
$27.93
$27.93
≈$27.48
WorkHard-Video_V1
$167.30
2.8%
43
9
20.93%
11.4 – 35.2%
$18.59 · low vol
$18.59
≈$18.29
Untagged / macro-broken
—
—
26
8
30.77%
—
—
—
—
7 signups and 0 redemptions are not represented in Aisle's Entry Channels table
Total
$5,930.44
100%
2,046
281
13.73%
12.3 – 15.3%
$21.10
$21.26
≈$20.77
Three creatives are below the $24.83 transaction value on Meta cost per redemption and the campaign as a whole is $3.73 under it. Protein-Original ($18.05), WorkHard ($18.59) and Original ($21.38) are under; Reveal-Video ($26.48) and 4PackB ($27.93) are above. Both of the week's new redemptions went to Original. Protein-Original leads on redemption rate for an eleventh consecutive reading (17.82%), on a base of 101 — and leads on the $8 offer too (5.98% on 234).
The two ad sets finished indistinguishable — Metro 13.55% on 1,498 signups, Regional 13.61% on 507 — as they have been in every reading since Sep 2. No creative pause was ever warranted: every interval still spans the campaign's 13.73%, and the four pause recommendations issued in the first week were all overturned by maturation.
Cost per Redemption by Creative
Dashed line is the $24.83 average transaction value — three bars below it
Share of Spend vs Share of Redemptions
Bars above their spend share earned their budget
10
Economics, Geography & What Happens Next
Signups
2,046
final
Redemptions
281
545 units moved
Redemption Rate
13.73%
bar is 14.22%
Redemption Value
$6,977.54
$67.95 incremental
Avg. Redemption
$24.83
was $24.82
Revenue / Signup
$3.41
vs Free's pre-relaunch $3.53
Meta Cost / Redem.
$21.10
$5,930.44 ÷ 281 · $34.67 incl. Aisle
True Cost / Email
$4.76
media + Aisle costs ÷ signups
Aisle ROI
1.83
excl. media · 0.72 blended
Redemptions by State — top 5 of 39
California25
Florida23
New York19
Illinois14
New Jersey11
Remaining 33 states + DC123
Counts are of the 215 redemptions Aisle has located (76.5% of 281). Free's top five is CA 219 · TX 147 · FL 124 · NJ 74 · NY 73, and the two offers agree on four of their five leading states. Section 06 has the full list.
Redemptions by Gender
79.23%
Female
20.77%
Male
Free reads 74.92% on 1,490 redemptions, including the relaunch's, and the $8 offer 85.96% on 65. Free and BOGO agree to within five points across nine readings — the most stable figure in the programme, and a usable targeting signal; the $8 offer's base is still small. 87–93% of users report gender.
What the data shows
The age-matched result replicated an eighth time — now on cohort-level actuals
0.520 × 1.888 = 0.98, after 1.03, 1.04, 1.06, 1.06, 1.00, 0.97 and 0.97. Scored signup day by signup day, the first days ran at 43–71% of Free's rate and the last full days at 34–45%.
BOGO is media-profitable per redemption, by a widening margin
$21.10 against a $24.83 value, projected ≈$20.77 at ≈286 redemptions. Still only $1.18 of retail per media dollar against the free offer's $14.87.
Revenue per signup is 97% of the free offer's pre-relaunch figure
$3.41 against $3.53; $3.47 against $3.53 at matched maturity. Against the reactivated $3.72, 92%.
CPL plateaued at $3.67–3.76 and closed there
The $8 offer's second and third legs ran at $4.69 and $4.40 — above BOGO's plateau for a priced offer with a worse page. The free relaunch is running at $0.46.
BOGO amplification finished at 0.99×
2,046 Aisle signups on 2,061 Meta leads. Free's 1.35× is offer-specific.
The last morning's signups look invalid
$347 spent, 374 clicks, 2 landing-page views, 5 leads — and 46 Aisle signups that have not produced a single redemption in fifteen days. Signups Meta's pixel did not see and that never redeem are more likely automated or duplicate than genuine.
What we recommend
Do first Keep BOGO as the paid offer in reserve behind the free relaunch
$3.41 of retail per signup, $21.10 per redemption, revenue per signup within 2% of the free offer's at maturity — but at $2.90 per signup against the relaunch's $0.29. The free relaunch is the right use of the account now; BOGO is the paid offer to test next if a paid offer is wanted.
Do first Ask Aisle about the Sep 9 signups
46 signups on a morning Meta's pixel saw 2 landing-page views, and 0 redemptions from any of them. Whether they were automated, duplicated or routed from somewhere else, it should be understood before BOGO — or any campaign on that page — restarts.
Done Signup-dated cohort data
Requested for eleven editions; Aisle's channel data turns out to provide it when filtered by signup date. Section 04 is now built on it, and it answered the $8 question and the Sep 9 question in one read.
Next Restart from the Sep 8 settings, with ad-set budgets rather than CBO
Its steady state was ≈$650/day at $3.70 per lead and 40–42% landing-page conversion. The $8 restarts showed what CBO does when it re-learns from zero after a halt — three restarts, three different allocations; on an account that has halted twice and restarted three times, fixed budgets are safer.
Do not Re-judge BOGO on today's headline rate
13.73% is a blend of cohorts aged 14–25 days. Age-matched it is 52% of Free; at maturity it projects to ≈14.0%.
Free Giveaway · “1 Free – Target” · original Meta delivery Aug 30–31, 2026 · relaunched Sep 24 — the relaunch's 5,742 signups have their own tab, not in this cohort · original cohort redemptions: 168 → 362 → 873 → 1,042 → 1,073 → 1,102 → 1,126 → 1,211 → 1,232 → 1,269 → 1,334 → 1,686 · reactivated by the relaunch
07
Scorecard — Free Giveaway, Original Cohort
The 4,720 signups acquired by the original campaign (Aug 30–31, plus two strays). Meta figures final. Aisle figures current to Oct 1, about 10:45 AM ET; the cohort's redemptions are read from Aisle's signup-dated Entry Channels data. Aisle reports revenue, payouts and fees for the campaign as a whole, so this cohort's are its share of the campaign's per-redemption averages (marked ≈).
Meta Spend
$1,179.52
2 delivery days · final · relaunch $1,058.65 separate
Meta CTR
9.42%
6,368 clicks · CPC $0.19
Meta Leads
3,496
CPL $0.34 · CPM $17.45
Aisle Signups
4,720
final · 1,224 above Meta leads
Aisle Redemptions
1,686
1,267 before the relaunch · +419 reactivated
Aisle Redemption Rate
35.72%
145% of the 24.57% benchmark · 26.84% pre-relaunch
Aisle Redemption Value
≈$21,993
$13.04 avg · ≈1,704 units
Derived Revenue / Signup
$4.66
$3.53 before the relaunch
Derived Meta Cost / Redemption
$0.70
$1,179.52 ÷ 1,686 · $14.28 incl. Aisle costs
Derived True Cost / Email
$5.10
$1,179.52 media + ≈$22,889 Aisle ÷ 4,720 signups
Derived Eff. Cost / Signup
$0.25
Meta spend ÷ Aisle signups
Derived Amplification
1.35×
25.9% unattributed
Aisle Units / Redemption
1.01
matches a single free item
Aisle ROI
0.96
campaign, excl. media · 0.91 blended
Aisle Campaign Total
3,793
redemptions on 10,462 signups · both cohorts · $49,477.78
Redemptions by State — Free Giveaway
3,438 redemptions with a known state (91% of 3,793 — original cohort and relaunch together) · top seven states, the rest grouped · Oct 1, 10:45 AM ET
Share of located redemptions
California552 · 16.1%
Texas411 · 12.0%
Florida333 · 9.7%
New York178 · 5.2%
New Jersey150 · 4.4%
Pennsylvania140 · 4.1%
Michigan120 · 3.5%
Other 42 states + DC1,554 · 45.2%
California is still about one redemption in six, and the top seven states are 54.8% of the total. The other 45.2% is spread across 42 states and DC, none above 3.4% — Illinois is next at 116. New York has moved back above New Jersey, and Michigan has entered the top seven in place of Illinois. The full state list, with BOGO and the $8 offer alongside, is in section 06 (Sep 25 edition).
08
The Maturation Curve — and the Two Signup Days
Signups fixed at 4,719 since Aug 31 (plus one stray on Sep 14). The curve crossed the benchmark on Sep 12 and had flattened to under 0.1 points a day by Sep 23 — then the relaunch reactivated the cohort. The curve shown, and used for age-matching, stops at Sep 23.
Free Offer Redemption Rate Over Time
Fixed base of 4,719 signups through Sep 23 · against the 24.57% category benchmark
Readings to date
Aug 31 — day 2168 · 3.56%
Sep 5 — day 7873 · 18.50%
Sep 9 — day 11, complete1,102 · 23.35%
Sep 12 — day 14 crosses benchmark1,184 · 25.09%
Sep 16 — day 18, complete1,227 · 26.00%
Sep 20 — day 22, complete1,257 · 26.63%
Sep 23 — day 25, complete pre-relaunch1,267 · 26.84%
Sep 25 — day 27 reactivated · partial1,334 · 28.26%
Category benchmark24.57%
Before the relaunch the last seven complete days had added 12, 5, 7, 6, 2, 4 and 4 redemptions — a slope under 0.1 points a day. Since Sep 23 the cohort has added 67 in a day and a half. Those are genuine sales but a relaunch effect, and they would distort the age-matched reference if included, so the curve stops at Sep 23.
Signup day
Signups
Redemptions
Rate
Free-Original
4PackA
4PackB
Untagged
Broken macro
Sat, Aug 30
3,220
1,148
35.65%
33.0% on 1,936
28.3% on 434
29.2% on 48
46.9% on 637
46.3% on 147
Sun, Aug 31
1,493
185
12.39%
14.8% on 493
8.4% on 344
10.9% on 440
25.5% on 94
16.7% on 42
The original free offer was really two cohorts: Aug 30's signups have redeemed at 35.7%, Aug 31's at 12.4%. The gap holds within every creative and within untagged traffic — Free-Original converted 33.0% of its Aug 30 signups and 14.8% of its Aug 31 signups — so it is not a creative-mix effect. Something about who arrived on the second day, or what they found, cut the redemption rate by two-thirds; the data does not show what. It matters for the relaunch: a first day that converts far better than the second is a pattern to look for in the relaunch's cohorts too.
09
Attribution Cohorts
The original cohort's redemptions split by how the signup arrived, from signup-dated Entry Channels data (signed up Aug 1 – Sep 23). Ninth consecutive reading.
Cohort
Signups
Redemptions
Redemption rate
95% interval
Share of redemptions
Paid, correctly tagged
3,778
931
24.64%
23.3 – 26.0%
69.8%
Untagged — no UTM at all
732
323
44.13%
40.6 – 47.7%
24.2%
Broken {{macro}} rows
189
75
39.68%
33.0 – 46.8%
5.6%
Instagram link-in-bio
16
4
25.00%
10.2 – 49.5%
0.3%
Original free signups
4,715
1,333
28.27%
27.0 – 29.6%
100%
Untagged traffic redeems at 44.13% against 24.64% for correctly-tagged paid traffic — 1.8×, overwhelmingly significant (z = 10.8, p ≈ 5 × 10⁻²⁷), and 24.2% of the original cohort's redemptions. Signups arriving with no campaign parameters did not click an ad: they are direct visits and shared links. The finding has held across nine independent readings. The relaunch shows the same shape through a different door: its Aisle Community signups, who also did not click an ad, are redeeming several times faster than its Meta signups.
10
Creative Performance — Free, Original Campaign
Meta spend joined to Aisle redemptions by UTM term for signups up to Sep 23, combining each creative's Metro and Regional variants and its meta / paid-social and facebook / paid rows; rows whose ad name resolved but whose ad-set macro did not are assigned to their named creative. The relaunch's creatives are in section 05.
Creative
Spend
Meta leads
Aisle signups
Redemptions
Redem. rate
95% interval
Cost / redemption
Free-Original_V2
$545.28
2,097
2,440
718
29.43%
27.7 – 31.3%
$0.76
4PackA_V1
$315.62
819
783
154
19.67%
17.0 – 22.6%
$2.05
4PackB_V1
$277.19
498
493
64
12.98%
10.3 – 16.2%
$4.33
Reveal-Video_V4
$41.24
82
83
4
4.82%
1.9 – 11.7%
$10.31
WorkHard-Video_V1
$0.19
0
0
0
—
—
— no delivery
Untagged / macro-broken / IG
—
—
916
394
43.01%
39.8 – 46.2%
—
5 signups are not represented in Aisle's Entry Channels table; this read ran a minute after the cohort total above and includes one more redemption
Total
$1,179.52
3,496
4,720
1,334
28.26%
27.0 – 29.6%
$0.88
Free-Original delivers a verified in-store sale for $0.76 — the best figure anywhere in the programme, 28× cheaper than BOGO's campaign average. It is carrying 52% of the relaunch's Meta spend, where so far it converts Meta leads to Aisle signups less often than the 4-pack creatives (0.66 against 0.78–0.85 per lead) but redeems faster (3.4% against 0.6–1.1%).
50% Off 4-Pack · “50% Off 4-Pack – Target” · live in Aisle from Sep 30 · no Meta campaign · signups 105 · redemptions 3
07
Scorecard — 50% Off 4-Pack
A new Aisle-only offer with no media behind it, so there are no Meta figures and no cost per lead. Aisle figures current to Oct 1, about 10:45 AM ET; Oct 1 is a partial UTC day. Two days in, every number here is a first reading.
Meta Spend
$0
no Meta campaign
Aisle Signups
105
75 on Sep 30 · 29 on Oct 1 (partial) · 1 stray
Aisle Signups by Source
104
organic / untagged · no Meta, no Aisle Community tag yet
Aisle Redemptions
3
all on Sep 30
Aisle Redemption Rate
2.86%
day 0–1 · a first reading, not a result
Aisle Redemption Value
$38.97
$12.99 avg · 3 units
Aisle Payout / Redemption
$6.50
vs $5.00 $8 · $12.87 BOGO · $12.88 Free
Aisle Program Cost / Redem.
$7.20
$19.50 payouts + $2.10 fees
Derived Revenue / Signup
$0.37
day 0–1 · BOGO $3.46 at maturity
Derived True Cost / Email
$0.21
$0 media + $21.60 Aisle ÷ 105 signups
Aisle Redemptions by State
3
New Jersey 2 · Kansas 1
—
Data Sources & Integrity Notes
Methodology
Meta data pulled live from the Meta Ads MCP on Sep 25, 2026 at about 8:54 AM ET for account Drink Pres (741758541791060): all four campaigns at campaign level, the relaunch at ad set, ad and daily level, and the $8 campaign daily. The relaunch's ad-level spend reconciles exactly to its campaign total ($562.87 / 1,218 leads); campaign level is authoritative. Account and campaign changes were read from the account's activity log. The relaunch's Sep 25 figures are a same-day read of a campaign still delivering.
The relaunch. Activity log: campaign PRES_Target-Aisle_Free_ABO_092026 created Sep 24 12:23 PM with four ad sets on daily budgets of $100, $150, $125 and $125, optimising for conversions; set Active 3:05 PM; ads began delivering 3:11 PM; at 4:14 PM each ad set's targeting was updated to exclude the custom audience EXCL_Free-pres-qzl_Leads_60d. The three original campaigns remain paused; the $8 campaign has received 15 late-attributed leads since its pause, with no spend.
Aisle data read live from the brand dashboard on Sep 25, 2026 between 8:58 and 9:04 AM ET, in the signed-in Chrome browser — offers 1 Free – Target (prs14753751530), BOGO 4-Pack – Target (prs14405787928) and Try a 4-Pack for $8 – Target (prs15722340421). The free offer was adding signups and redemptions by the minute; its card (6,682 / 1,490) and its cohort read (6,676 / 1,491, a minute later) differ accordingly, and each figure is used where it was read.
Signup-dated cohorts. Aisle's Entry Channels data, filtered to a signup date range, returns the signups made in that range and every redemption those signups have made since. This edition uses it to read each signup day's redemptions for BOGO and the $8 offer, the free offer's two original signup days, and the relaunch's cohorts by source. It is the cohort view earlier editions requested; it replaces the inference used in section 04 until now.
Aisle's dates are UTC. Its day runs from 8 PM to 8 PM Eastern. Aisle's Sep 24 therefore holds the relaunch's first nine hours of delivery, and its Sep 25 holds Sep 24's evening and Sep 25's morning. Sep 25 is the partial day in this edition; Sep 24 is the last complete one.
The original free cohort is the 4,720 signups made before Sep 24. Its daily redemptions through Sep 23 give the free reference curve; from Sep 24 the relaunch reactivated it (+67 redemptions in a day and a half against about 4 a day before), so later days are excluded from the curve. Its revenue, payouts, fees and units are the campaign's per-redemption averages ($13.15, $12.91, $0.70, 1.02) applied to its redemptions, because Aisle reports them only for the campaign.
The age-matched calculation fits the free cohort's per-age cumulative redemption curve from its daily redemptions through Sep 23, allowing its Aug 30 and Aug 31 signups to mature at different levels (Aug 31 at 0.35× Aug 30, their observed to-date ratio) — ages 0 to 24: 2.63, 7.45, 10.71, 13.93, 16.41, 18.35, 19.73, 20.82, 22.29, 22.82, 23.44, 23.93, 24.67, 25.16, 25.50, 25.67, 25.81, 26.04, 26.30, 26.38, 26.54, 26.66, 26.69, 26.78, 26.87% — then multiplies each BOGO and $8 signup day by the curve at its age as of Sep 24 and compares with that day's actual redemptions. Assuming the two free days matured alike gives almost identical results (BOGO 52.0%, $8 24.3%). The method assumes the other offers mature in the same shape as the free offer; the $8 cohorts' late maturation shows that is only approximately true.
The maturity projections multiply each offer's age-matched ratio by the free cohort's pre-relaunch 26.84% and apply it to the fixed signup base: BOGO ≈14.0% and ≈286 redemptions (≈$20.77 each); the $8 offer ≈6.6%. They are labelled as projections wherever they appear.
The BOGO breakeven bar is the free cohort's pre-relaunch revenue per signup ÷ BOGO's average redemption value: $3.5303 ÷ $24.83 = 14.22%. The $8 offer's bars (23.5% against BOGO's revenue per signup, 24.4% against the free offer's, 35.5% against BOGO's retail per media dollar) use a redemption value of $14.49 measured on 65 baskets.
Sources (section 05) classify every Entry Channels row: Meta paid (meta / facebook source — tagged original campaigns, the relaunch campaign, and broken-macro or stale-UTM rows), Aisle Community (no UTMs, Aisle acquisition tag MOBILE_APP_SIGNUP_IOS, MOBILE_APP_SIGNUP_ANDROID or an offers-page signup, which Aisle labels source Aisle Community), and organic / untagged (no UTMs, no marketplace tag; Instagram). Meta leads are never added to Aisle signups; the relaunch's 1,218 Meta leads against 914 tagged Aisle signups (0.75×) is reported as its own measure.
Geography (section 06) uses Aisle's redemptions-by-state data per campaign, which locates 1,572 of 1,836 redemptions (85.6%); unlocated redemptions are excluded, not allocated. Population shares are 2020 Census resident population (331.4 million, 50 states and DC); regions are the four Census regions; the index is a state's share of located redemptions divided by its share of population; HHI is the sum of squared state shares × 10,000. Aisle's state data is by campaign, not by source or cohort.
Meta's clicks and ctr count all clicks, including video engagement. Both click measures are shown where they differ materially; the daily tables keep the all-clicks convention with an outbound column.
Aisle payout per redemption differs by offer — $12.91 (Free), $12.86 (BOGO) and $5.00 ($8 offer). Fees run 5.4–5.5% of payouts on Free and BOGO and 14.0% on the $8 offer. Program cost per redemption is therefore $13.61, $13.57 and $5.70.
Broken {{ad.name}} / {{adset.name}} / {{campaign.name}} macros persist — 189 original free signups, 24 relaunch, 16 BOGO and 46 on the $8 offer — and carried into the new campaign. Traffic also arrives split across meta / paid-social and facebook / paid labels, combined here.
Untagged cohort provenance is inferred, not verified. "No UTM" is a residual bucket including genuine sharing, parameter-stripping browsers and tracking failures. The 44.13% rate is measured; the sharing interpretation is not.
Aisle's benchmark panel is still unreliable. Its “Your Conversion Rate” matches the dashboard for the $8 offer (4.97%) but not for Free or BOGO. Peer benchmarks are used: $8 14.38% (read today); Free 24.57% and BOGO 18.21% carried from Sep 24, as today's read did not capture them.
Meta cost per redemption is Meta spend ÷ Aisle redemptions ($0.88 Free original, $21.10 BOGO, $88.04 $8). True cost per email is Meta spend plus Aisle payouts and fees, ÷ Aisle signups ($4.10 Free original, $4.76 BOGO, $4.66 $8, $3.30 for the free campaign's two cohorts together; $3.77 across the portfolio). It rises as cohorts mature, because each redemption adds Aisle payouts.
Retention and Referral offers record zero activity across all three campaigns and every reporting period to date.
Rounding: rates and derived metrics computed from raw values before display rounding. Intervals are Wilson score intervals at 95%.
On reading this dashboard. Twelve editions in, the findings that have been rebuilt from scratch and reproduced: the age-matched composite (1.03, 1.04, 1.06, 1.06, 1.00, 0.97, 0.97, 0.98 — Free and BOGO earn the same per signup, now confirmed on cohort-level data), the untagged cohort's ~1.8× redemption advantage (nine readings), the absence of amplification on a paid offer (0.99× BOGO, 0.98× $8), BOGO being media-profitable per redemption (four readings), and the $8 offer converting at about a quarter of the free offer's age-matched rate (cohort-level, all three legs). The relaunch is eighteen hours old: its costs are real, its redemption rates are first-day readings, and the Aisle Community result in particular needs a week of maturation before it is a finding.